WSP has been working with clients to develop a simulation model based on the national assumptions but tailored to local population characteristics. Through careful calibration with actual data in nine ICPs we are confident that the model below provided realistic outputs for a typical population catchment of 500,000 as we started to come down from the early April peak in hospital use and deaths.
We are now on the brink of releasing an updated version that has improved accuracy through testing over a longer period up to early May. This will also enable scenario testing in the light of the Prime Ministers announcement on the 10th May outlining the roadmap to relaxing restrictions. A brief description of our approach in the wider context of transitioning to a ‘new normal’ can be downloaded here. For further information, or for a conversation about calibrating the model to your local area please contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
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