WSP has developed a population cohort model that combines intelligence from the Kent Integrated Dataset with national cohort studies and other data to produce a simulation of future health needs for a whole population. We have successfully calibrated the model to several locations including CCG, Local Authority Districts and STP/ICS footprints.
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A copy of the technical document is available here.
The model uses the following simple concepts, which combine to provide a dynamic modelling environment to explore what-if scenarios focussed on twelve different prevention strategies:
- We use a segmentation approach that ensures that people with similar needs are grouped together and progress through the model at appropriate rates based on need not age;
- We use public health intelligence and other evidence to identify the average rates of progression between different health states based on risk;
- We use the Kent Integrated Dataset to identify the rates of access to a range of different health and social care services, adjusted for local socio-demographic factors;
- We provide twelve different prevention strategies across all population age groups to identify the ‘art of the possible’ when it comes to improving the health of a local population.