Cohort model

The End of Life Care Cohort Model simulates the likely End of Life Care (EoLC) needs for a local population. It enables you to consider how far local provision meets those needs, and provides a framework and context for local discussions about implementing the National End of Life Care strategy. The tool takes into account the impact of changing demography, earlier recognition of EoLC needs, and reducing numbers of deaths in hospitals. It also identifies the impact on community workforce and the net effect of hospital savings on local QIPP targets.

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Who is it for?

This tool is ideal for strategic commissioning managers with a responsibility for End of Life Care. It has already been used to inform local plans for taking this important area forward as well as facilitating local discussion and priority setting.

How does it work?

The Cohorts referred to reflect five trajectories of need during the last year of someone’s life: cancer, other terminal illness, organ failure, frailty, and sudden death. The model is based on a set of relationships within the health and social care system that link the impact of key strategic targets (earlier recognition of EoLC needs and enabling choice of place of death) to workforce requirements and community support. It creates a dynamic environment that tracks resource use, capacity, and performance outputs over time.


How was it developed?

The tool has been developed through clinical engagement, demographic analysis and research into evidence on end of life needs. However, in developing a calibration of the tool local intelligence is vital, so the process we adopt combines data, intelligence gathering and engagement with key people in your own area.

A full description of the tool and supporting material can be found on the National End of Life Care Intelligence Network website.

Cohort Model